A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
